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Old 02-06-2019, 05:00 PM   #1576
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I wouldn't put a stop loss in that high on such a volition price stock.


I've seen AOBC go from 11 to 7 and back up to 12 just at the opening on day.


Buy some covered puts just out of the money (8 ish?) with May + expiration dates instead if you must protect on the downside. Now hold on it might be quite a ride.
VSTO

Ugly looking upside down hammer for today.

On higher than normal volume.

Might be in for an ugly surprise tomorrow AM.

Just putting it out there. I'll be prepared, either way.


ETA: Up almost 3% in the aftermarket.
Real or head fake?
Time will tell.
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Old 02-06-2019, 06:03 PM   #1577
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I did sell some of my semi stocks yesterday and today.

Time to take some profit. I'll let 'em come down some and then add back to my positions.

Or they breakout on the breakout. LOL
Hell, I made over 20% on WDC and SWKS in just a few days. I'll take that any week.

Did pretty good on MU also.

I also sold half the CVX I bought back a week or so ago.

Added to GOOGL today based on their earnings report and the chart.
Don't really understand why they went down after the report. Just profit taking, I guess.
They seem well poised for another run up.
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:09 AM   #1578
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Got pretty much all of my December losses back in my TSP account. I was sweating my balls off a little. Now they are cool to the touch. <scratch scratch>
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Old 02-07-2019, 05:11 PM   #1579
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So, today.....

No meeting with Trump and Xi, Mar 1.
---yeah, big fucking surprise........

Central banks around the world forecast lower economic growth
---another earth shattering news flash

Wait until Powell raises rates again.
LMAO


There are already companies moving their production off China.
The communist party leaders should take note but are more interested in saving face.

No wonder they want our food.
1.4 B hungry Chinese will end communist rule if they're not careful.

And the US economy is still holding up pretty well.
Not sweating it.
There will be a shift in supply chains and more production ultimately inside the US.
Yeah, the socialists oppose that.
They oppose anything that might hurt their socialist komrades in China.

Powell:
People are used to going by what the Fed Chair says.
Forget that with Powell.
Just watch what he does. That's all that matters.
And if anyone really pays attention to what he's saying, he is broadcasting it anyhow.
Denial is a powerful thing.

Today I sold off a few things early on, including some of my semis.
Sold VSTO right after the open. UG-LY!

Came close to picking up more GOOGL but I'll watch for a little bit yet.
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Old 02-07-2019, 06:24 PM   #1580
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i am a financial advisor, and a CFP with 150 clients. Stop all the clever games of trying to time the markets by jumping into sectors, and so forth, you guys are retails investors playing a game against super computers, and insider traders. Just like gambling, the house wins in the end. The market is too efficient, and you'll almost always be late to the party.

buy the vanguard sp 500,and add 10% bonds in your40s, another 10% in your 50s, and 10% every decade after.

most importantly, save 20% of your gross income.
BWHAHAHAHAHA!

Never though i'd see that kinda bullshit propaganda here on the AK files, save that "you're too stupid to manage your money just give it to me" shit for the noobs you scam.
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Old 02-07-2019, 09:18 PM   #1581
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BWHAHAHAHAHA!

Never though i'd see that kinda bullshit propaganda here on the AK files, save that "you're too stupid to manage your money just give it to me" shit for the noobs you scam.
no need to be a dick. I am in the industry, and I am telling that beating the market is BS, how the fuck is that propaganda? Many shady financial advisors make their living creating the illusion that they will beat the market, and I am telling you the opposite. Once that illusion is created, you can charge clients out the ass. There is no money in recommending to use a fund with a fee of .03 percent (vanguard sp500).

The proof is in the pudding, and here are some examples.

if you look at the crash of 2008, they calculated returns of men versus women, and they found that women had achieved higher returns then men. Reason being is that when the market crashed, women frooze, and did nothing. On the other hand, men tried to outsmart the market, and chased returns in things like treasury and gold, after that train had already passed.

Second piece of proof is a study done by fidelity. They found that the clients with the highest returns, were their dead clients with forgotten accounts. Reason being, once the client died, they stopped trading the account,resulting in overall higher returns.

third, blackrock did a study, and they found that the average investor in the last 20 years achieved a 3.6% rate of return, versus equities at 8.5%. The disparity was due mostly to overtrading, and secondly, high fee investments.

Lastly, look at warren buffetts hedge fund bet. He wagered a bet with the best hedge funds in new york that the vanguard SP 500 would outperform those hedge funds after fees. It's been 10 years, and warrren won the bet. These are supposed to be the smartest investors in the world, their billionaires, but couldn't beat the vanguard sp500, which is a passively managed fund with almost no fees. Many of these hedge fund guys charge 2% plus 20% of the gains. Some raking in billions a year.

The financial service market is mostly a scam. Don't pay high fees to try and beat the market, and don't overtrade your accounts. The best strategy is to find low fee passive funds, and buy and forget.

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Old 02-08-2019, 12:47 PM   #1582
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I know Im getting older cause I randomly decided to start looking into a ROTH. No idea wth Im doing.
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Old 02-08-2019, 01:55 PM   #1583
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I know Im getting older cause I randomly decided to start looking into a ROTH. No idea wth Im doing.
Then do what the financial adviser is saying above.

I can't really advise throwing a lot of cash into the current market but if your time horizon is long it won't make a lot of difference.
Otherwise, average your way in.
If there's an end to the trade war that would bode well in a down market. In an up market it probably won't make a huge difference -- that's just MO.

I'm not a fan of buy and hold, just buy index funds, etc, but if you're working and you don't really know what to do, it is definitely the best strategy.

Over time, the trend is to the upside.

TIME HORIZON -- it's everything in deciding what you should do.
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Old 02-08-2019, 08:43 PM   #1584
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I trimmed many of my positions yesterday and more so, today.

Just putting it out there.
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Old 02-09-2019, 01:54 AM   #1585
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Then do what the financial adviser is saying above.

I can't really advise throwing a lot of cash into the current market but if your time horizon is long it won't make a lot of difference.
Otherwise, average your way in.
If there's an end to the trade war that would bode well in a down market. In an up market it probably won't make a huge difference -- that's just MO.

I'm not a fan of buy and hold, just buy index funds, etc, but if you're working and you don't really know what to do, it is definitely the best strategy.

Over time, the trend is to the upside.

TIME HORIZON -- it's everything in deciding what you should do.
Index funds. What do you recommend? I do like the get it and forget it idea.
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Old 02-09-2019, 09:57 AM   #1586
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Index funds. What do you recommend? I do like the get it and forget it idea.
If you're doing an IRA, I'd recommend an ETF rather than a mutual fund but if your real goal is to get and forget, a mutual fund is fine also.
The ETF gives you a little more flexibility in when you get in or out.
With a mutual fund you get end of day prices.

VOO or SPY are both ETFs that are about equal in fees which are very low.

I am with the adviser on Vanguard overall.
They have very low fees and have been great for investors so I tend to favor them for such things.

VFIAX is Vanguard's 500 Index mutual fund.

Get your money in an account and then you can move it as you want.

MO is that the market's going down for a little bit here but no one knows that.
S&P 500 isn't likely to get over 2800 easily, regardless, so IMO you have a little time but the main thing is to get your money and get set up so you can move when you are ready.


Now, there is another aspect to this:
If you're investing outside of a retirement vehicle like an IRA, I absolutely do not recommend mutual funds, but favor ETFs or individual stocks, etc.

Good luck. Get started.
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Old 02-09-2019, 07:02 PM   #1587
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called it.
BTC currently at the 3600 range.
LTC @32$

What a Wonderful Day.
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Old 02-10-2019, 02:13 PM   #1588
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Mar 1: Deadline for Tariff increases
--no deal likely between now and then.
--I don't believe either side wants a deal


Mar 19-20: Fed meeting
--Powell would still like to hike rates
--I don't think he's going to be able to unless there's some very positive news in the MACRO picture, or stocks do VERY well
--Neither of those are likely IMO
--so probably NO RATE HIKE


Mar 29: BREXIT
--No deal between Brussels socialists and UK socialists


March will be an important month, obviously, and will have a profound effect on markets.

Mostly, I see this as a negative but a lot can happen between now and then.


We just bumped up on the SP500 200 day moving average and fell back a little.
Very significant resistance just above that at 2800.

Soft support about 2600 with potential for a short term head and shoulders formation with that as neckline.

I expect bearish positioning going into March unless something changes.


This is merely my current assessment.

For now, continues to appear that cash is a worthwhile position to hold in 2019.
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Old 02-11-2019, 01:23 AM   #1589
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Originally Posted by drjarhead View Post
If you're doing an IRA, I'd recommend an ETF rather than a mutual fund but if your real goal is to get and forget, a mutual fund is fine also.
The ETF gives you a little more flexibility in when you get in or out.
With a mutual fund you get end of day prices.

VOO or SPY are both ETFs that are about equal in fees which are very low.

I am with the adviser on Vanguard overall.
They have very low fees and have been great for investors so I tend to favor them for such things.

VFIAX is Vanguard's 500 Index mutual fund.

Get your money in an account and then you can move it as you want.

MO is that the market's going down for a little bit here but no one knows that.
S&P 500 isn't likely to get over 2800 easily, regardless, so IMO you have a little time but the main thing is to get your money and get set up so you can move when you are ready.


Now, there is another aspect to this:
If you're investing outside of a retirement vehicle like an IRA, I absolutely do not recommend mutual funds, but favor ETFs or individual stocks, etc.

Good luck. Get started.
Yeah Im mostly looking to supplement my retirement. Or rather add to it.
What is an ETF?
As for the individual stocks......am I able to just buy stock in any company/group that's publicly traded?
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:22 AM   #1590
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Yeah Im mostly looking to supplement my retirement. Or rather add to it.
What is an ETF?
As for the individual stocks......am I able to just buy stock in any company/group that's publicly traded?

An IRA would typically allow you buy individual stocks.
An IRA or Roth IRA will allow a wide array of investment choices.

ETF = exchange traded funds

Hold a basket of stocks but can be traded like stocks.
The advantage IMO is not getting stuck with end of day prices.
If you buy or sell a mutual fund, the sale doesn't go through until end of day, as opposed to stocks or ETFs.


There is a LOT of work that goes into individual stocks so be aware.
If you just pick companies you like, you get get slammed pretty hard.

Diversification is also very important because no matter how much homework you do researching individual stocks, there will always be something....

The hardest to predict is govt crap.
The big money seems to always know this ahead of time but for us small investors, we're at the mercy of the govt all too often.

I don't see individual stocks as being a good option for a buy and forget strategy. Do an index ETF like VOO.
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Old 02-11-2019, 10:51 AM   #1591
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Bought more EA when we just dropped down to $80. Glad I did. EA’s up substantially due to their competition for Fortnite gaining lots of traction.
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Old 02-11-2019, 01:58 PM   #1592
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What do you all think about TCEHY?
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Old 02-11-2019, 03:50 PM   #1593
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I think the chicoms want to see if Trump is bluffing on the tariff increase on Mar 1. When those increases start to really sink in I think that’s where we may see a deal. I’d actually like to see Trump increase the tariffs again in April if no deal can be reached.

The 10 yr b is still hovering around 2.6 frankly with the govt uncertainty I’d thought it would much closer to 3%.
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Old 02-11-2019, 05:13 PM   #1594
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I think the chicoms want to see if Trump is bluffing on the tariff increase on Mar 1. When those increases start to really sink in I think thats where we may see a deal. Id actually like to see Trump increase the tariffs again in April if no deal can be reached.

The 10 yr b is still hovering around 2.6 frankly with the govt uncertainty Id thought it would much closer to 3%.
No reason for them not to think that, except one.

They're so used to pussies and sympathetic leftists running this country they almost have to let it play out.
They also figure Trump could be gone in 2 years, maybe even sooner if their socialist allies in the US can pull it off.


Now, the 'except:'

He's not bluffing


And companies are starting to move their manufacturing operations.
Not a lot yet, but it's starting.
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Old 02-16-2019, 02:11 AM   #1595
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Before you jump too much into the stock market, be aware that most people who invested in stocks in the last 30 years lost their asses. See, e.g., the plunge in 2000 that never recovered. These people were happy if they just broke even.
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Old 02-16-2019, 11:33 PM   #1596
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Before you jump too much into the stock market, be aware that most people who invested in stocks in the last 30 years lost their asses. See, e.g., the plunge in 2000 that never recovered. These people were happy if they just broke even.
WTF?
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Keep it here, nobody report a god damn thing and you 3 can verbally butt fuck each other til the cows come home. We don't care.
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Old 02-17-2019, 06:49 AM   #1597
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WTF?
WTFF?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dotcom-bubble.asp
https://www.google.com/search?q=csco...4zGjwSvroZQ2:0
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Old 02-17-2019, 06:50 PM   #1598
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Before you jump too much into the stock market, be aware that most people who invested in stocks in the last 30 years lost their asses. See, e.g., the plunge in 2000 that never recovered. These people were happy if they just broke even.
false....
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Old 02-18-2019, 02:10 AM   #1599
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Before you jump too much into the stock market, be aware that most people who invested in stocks in the last 30 years lost their asses. See, e.g., the plunge in 2000 that never recovered. These people were happy if they just broke even.

Yeah, that's why Crypto currency was invented.

Too many idiots playing with money that was never there's.

This next reset will change that........That I can guarantee.


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No reason for them not to think that, except one.

They're so used to pussies and sympathetic leftists running this country they almost have to let it play out.
They also figure Trump could be gone in 2 years, maybe even sooner if their socialist allies in the US can pull it off.

Now, the 'except:'

He's not bluffing

And companies are starting to move their manufacturing operations.
Not a lot yet, but it's starting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vwvectors View Post
I think the chicoms want to see if Trump is bluffing on the tariff increase on Mar 1. When those increases start to really sink in I think thats where we may see a deal. Id actually like to see Trump increase the tariffs again in April if no deal can be reached.

The 10 yr b is still hovering around 2.6 frankly with the govt uncertainty Id thought it would much closer to 3%.

Trump and China are Negotiating much more than just stuff related to tariffs, trade deals, and percentages. It's what your not seeing publicly that could scare you market wise.

I mainly lurk on this thread because I started learning/trading cryptocurrency about a year ago and I can tell by the info drjarhead posts, he knows his stuff.

I can confirm Trump will win at every angle. I dont think he's bluffing. and bluffing or not Trump is still gonna win. When has Trump ever lost?

Quote:
And companies are starting to move their manufacturing operations.
Not a lot yet, but it's starting
^and there's your proof.

The entire Chinese economy was/is feeding off of the American dollar. All those companies in China raking in tons and tons of cash for years and years. Trump has China by the balls, and he can squeeze however hard he wants now. China only became an economic powerhouse because of decades of
Quote:
pussies and sympathetic leftists
and democrats pretending to be republicans.

Yup...China/USA are gonna be Dead Cat Bouncing real hard soon regardless.

government uncertainty at 2.6...At that rate why bother. I studied the t-note Trend and I notice a pattern. T-notes hit bottom about 1-6 months before big election voting.

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Old 02-18-2019, 03:25 PM   #1600
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LTC up another 12-14% today.
This jump was unexpected and caught me off guard.
I only had 20% of my fiat invested in LTC on this jump so missed out. but I did sell the few LTC i had @47$.

I ran the fib retracement sequence on my charts and I see rejection(@the 50$ range).....but overall I think we out bear market, we already hit rock bottom at @22$ a few months back and this is the start of what will become a magnificent bull run.

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Old 02-18-2019, 05:26 PM   #1601
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Yep, added more BTC and LTC this week in my Coinbase acct. Looking at maybe some ETH as well.
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Old 02-19-2019, 04:56 PM   #1602
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Interesting day The resistance level is about the break in the gold market and Palladium is at a record high

And the fear factor has not even gone into overdrive yet.. Interesting times indeed
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Old 02-19-2019, 06:09 PM   #1603
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Interesting day The resistance level is about the break in the gold market and Palladium is at a record high

And the fear factor has not even gone into overdrive yet.. Interesting times indeed
Looks like PMs could continue to break out. I am mostly in physical metals but have a Fidelity Select Gold Fund in my IRA as "portfolio insurance".

I have rebalanced some of my holdings in my Fidelity, Stockpile and Robinhood accounts recently and made some decent gains but who knows what the markets will bring as some cracks are starting to appear even with some very good earnings reports. Added more SNH, SBRA, T, F and APU this last week for income and even fell into some ZNGA shares for spec. Meanwhile, my cryptos seem to have found a bottom and turned up in recent days.
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Old 02-20-2019, 02:10 PM   #1604
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Good Lord, LTC spiked at nearly 52$ late last night. Now we are way are over bought so and I'm expecting a 10 to 15% drop just on the FOMO of new traders alone.

The charts are telling me a good target area for buy back is $40.
Mark my words LTC will shock the alt crypto market this year like no other alt coin has before.
#buythedip
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Old 02-20-2019, 04:59 PM   #1605
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Good read here on the buying the dips.
https://cryptorecorder.com/2018/10/1...-litecoin-ltc/
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Old 02-22-2019, 12:18 PM   #1606
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Time to snag nike stock. Some basketball dude's shoe fell apart during a game and their stock dropped $1.1B overnight. I expect it to bounce back fairly quickly from that.
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Old 02-22-2019, 12:28 PM   #1607
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Nice little gain on LTC and BTC and now recovered on most everything else except F shares. Also bought more NGL units yesterday.
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Old 02-22-2019, 04:15 PM   #1608
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goods news on china/U.S. trade.


LTC forming another down leg on the 50/200 ema similar to the last one. If it charts similar we will have a another decent price drop over the weekend.
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Old 02-25-2019, 01:55 AM   #1609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Black Blade View Post
Nice little gain on LTC and BTC and now recovered on most everything else except F shares. Also bought more NGL units yesterday.

I posted this last night on reddit and got down voted. Then of course, guess what happens, Big rejection at the 54$ and down she goes. Praying for 34$ but alarms set 38$. We are over bought

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Old 02-25-2019, 11:03 AM   #1610
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Just a slow accumulation of LTC for now.

Meanwhile, added more F, MVO, NGL and LMLP for income while I look around and crunch numbers.
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